As Trump rebuffs India, the European Union nudges closer

It was a segment that mightiness person provoked outrage successful Brussels.

Narendra Modi, nan premier curate of India, joyfully holding hands pinch Vladimir Putin, nan president of Russia and main promoter of nan full-scale penetration of Ukraine, while attending nan yearly acme of nan Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

The two-day gathering successful Tianjin, China, was cautiously choreographed to represent an replacement to nan Western rules-based bid – a declaration of intent that its host, President Xi Jinping, underlined erstwhile he joined successful nan Modi-Putin handshake.

But alternatively of condemnations and recriminations, Brussels chose conciliation.

On Thursday, conscionable a fewer days aft nan intimately watched gathering, Ursula von der Leyen, nan president of nan European Commission, and António Costa, nan president of nan European Council, held a associated phone call pinch Modi and "warmly" welcomed his engagement pinch Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"India has an important domiciled to play successful bringing Russia to (an) extremity its warfare of aggression and helping create a way towards peace," they said successful a connection free of reproach.

"Looking ahead, we scheme to work together connected a associated strategical schedule astatine nan adjacent EU–India summit, arsenic early arsenic imaginable successful 2026."

At a clip of convulsive geopolitical shifts that person undercut aged alliances, eroded binding principles and deepened existential anxiety, nan European Union is successful a title against clip to find caller partners to cushion nan effect of specified pressures.

India, nan world's astir populous country, has emerged arsenic nan astir desirable candidate.

On paper, India ticks each nan boxes: a fast-growing economy, a young labour force, a burgeoning high-tech sector, a strategical geographic location and a antiauthoritarian system.

Commerce is already booming: nan €120 cardinal worthy of equipment traded betwixt nan EU and India past twelvemonth outstrips nan $132 cardinal (€113 billion) successful equipment traded betwixt nan United States and India. An estimated 6,000 European companies operate successful India, supporting 2 cardinal nonstop and 6 cardinal indirect jobs.

Bilateral practice is multifaceted, covering ambiance change, greenish energy, maritime security, earthy disasters and student exchange, among different areas. India is nan 2nd country, aft nan US, to found a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) pinch nan bloc.

But there's overmuch much to beryllium done.

Officials connected some sides spot bilateral relations arsenic an untapped root of communal prosperity and security. Now, amid a dizzying shake-up of world dynamics, they consciousness nan clip has travel to rotation up their sleeves and excavation nan narration further.

"Over nan past 30 years, we person done a batch together. But successful truth, we person only been scratching nan aboveground of nan imaginable that is there," von der Leyen said successful February during her charismatic sojourn to New Delhi.

The sojourn marked nan first overseas travel of her 2nd mandate. Escorted by nan full College of Commissioners, nan connection was unequivocal.

"The EU and India person nan imaginable to beryllium 1 of nan defining partnerships of this century," she declared. "And it is why it will beryllium a cornerstone of Europe's overseas argumentation successful nan years and decades to come."

Modi responded successful kind. "This travel is nan biggest catalyst that will construe our ambition into action," he told von der Leyen.

At nan extremity of nan visit, nan 2 leaders committed to reaching a free waste and acquisition deal, a coveted but elusive goal, by nan extremity of nan year.

Sensing an opening

Von der Leyen's said astir nan request to beryllium "pragmatic" successful diplomacy, highlighting communal interests and priorities alternatively of dwelling connected nan disagreements that caused clash successful nan past, specified arsenic India's protectionist practices and nan EU's c tax.

This cognition helps explains why Brussels has chosen to tolerate, alternatively than harshly denounce, India's continued ties pinch Russia, its adversary.

The nationalist curen contrasts pinch that of China, which nan EU has many times accused of being nan "key enabler" of Putin's war. China, it must beryllium noted, is an autocracy that has multiple unfastened fronts pinch nan West, including unfair subsidies, intelligence spot theft, disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks and quality authorities violations.

India has refrained from pursuing this confrontational attack and opted alternatively for an inclusive, multi-vector overseas policy, which has allowed nan state to forge disparate alliances astir nan world, from nan Quad, sitting alongside nan US, Japan and Australia, to nan BRICS, sitting alongside China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa.

"India's narration pinch Moscow is based upon a agelong contented of geopolitical spot that dates backmost to nan Cold War era and upon a beardown dependence connected Russian subject equipment. The EU has accepted this reality for galore years," said Jan Luykx, a elder subordinate chap astatine nan Egmont Institute and erstwhile Belgian ambassador to India.

"China, connected nan different hand, sees Russia arsenic a cardinal state successful its title pinch nan West. Without nan economical support from China, Russia would person existent difficulties successful pursuing its warfare against Ukraine."

Brushing divergences aside, Brussels is keen to unafraid a spot arsenic 1 of New Delhi's privileged partners. And nan timing seems propitious: conscionable arsenic Europeans are betting difficult connected person ties pinch India, Americans look to beryllium tearing theirs apart.

In a melodramatic reversal of US policy, Donald Trump has turned his occurrence against India, imposing 50% tariffs connected nan state successful consequence to its multi-billion purchases of Russian oil. Indians person been outraged by nan move, which they opportunity is unjustified and capricious, fixed that Trump has grounded to do nan aforesaid pinch nan largest client: China.

Trump's oft-repeated declare that he mediated a ceasefire betwixt India and Pakistan to extremity their little equipped conflict successful May has been rebutted by Indian officials, who insist it was their subject mightiness that led to nan speedy resolution. The truth that Trump agreed to big Pakistan's service chief, Asim Munir, for an unprecedented luncheon astatine nan White House caused further consternation. According to an insider account by nan New York Times, Indians are wary of putting Modi connected nan telephone pinch Trump, fearing a complete fallout.

The sharp deterioration has unravelled nan activity painstakingly done by erstwhile US administrations, some Republican and Democratic, which moved gradually person to India arsenic a measurement to counteract China's expanding sphere of power successful nan Indo-Pacific.

Europeans, who stock nan appraisal astir India's geopolitical value, are now watching their negotiated overtures summation a caller appreciation acknowledgment to Trump's scorched-earth tactics. But whether nan bloc tin prehend nan opportunity and move nan illness of US-India relations into nan emergence of EU-India relations remains to beryllium seen.

Brussels has often struggled to construe its large words into large action, peculiarly erstwhile it comes to overseas policy, wherever divergent interests of personnel states tin stymie corporate decision-making and present mixed messages.

So far, everybody appears to beryllium connected nan aforesaid page.

Shairee Malhotra, a lawman head astatine nan Observer Research Foundation (ORF), believes nan EU and India person learned to beryllium much elastic and applicable towards each different and position their relations done nan wider lens of geopolitics, alternatively than done a "microscopic sector-by-sector analysis" that risks bogging down talks.

New Delhi, pinch its push to pull overseas investors nether nan "Make successful India" initiative, represents an charismatic partner to de-risk from China and soften nan rustle of Trump's tariffs, which person deed nan export-oriented bloc with a achy 15% duty.

"Most importantly, what Brussels and New Delhi connection each different is stableness and akin broader goals and alignments, moreover though nan measurement to get astatine these whitethorn beryllium paved pinch immoderate friction," Malhotra told Euronews, calling nan imaginable "enormous".

"If existent unpredictable and volatile trends successful relations pinch nan US continue, this will so catalyse guardant momentum successful EU-India ties."