Europe kneels before Trump in Washington

When Volodymyr Zelenskyy returned to nan White House this week, he came flanked by an bonzer entourage: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

One by one, nan governmental heavyweights of Europe crossed nan Atlantic to beryllium alongside Ukraine’s president successful Donald Trump’s Oval Office.

The image was striking, and humiliating. There they sat, arrayed successful a semicircle, arsenic if pupils successful beforehand of a schoolhouse principal. The symbolism could not person been clearer: Europe had travel not arsenic an adjacent partner, but arsenic supplicant.

This was not a objection of strategical strength, but of Europe’s continuing weakness and dependence connected nan United States. More dangerously, connected nan whims of a mercurial president who delights successful reminding friends of their subordination.

For months, European leaders had insisted connected showing a agreed beforehand successful defence of Ukraine. Their unreserved to Washington was meant to protect Zelenskyy from different nationalist humiliation aft his disastrous Oval Office brushwood successful February.

By surrounding Zelenskyy pinch European heads of state, nan dream was that Trump mightiness refrain from different televised scolding. In that constrictive sense, nan ngo succeeded.

Zelenskyy wore a navy suit alternatively than fatigues, delivered a individual missive from his woman to Melania Trump, and played on pinch Trump’s lighter tone. Trump, successful turn, offered vague promises of “Article 5-type” information guarantees without NATO membership.

Pleading pinch Trump

But this choreography should fool nary one. Europe did not travel to Washington to discuss pinch America arsenic a partner; it came to plead pinch Trump not to make a unilateral woody connected Ukraine pinch Putin. The intent of nan delegation was to incorporate Trump’s unpredictability, to make judge nan man who conscionable days earlier had stood smiling beside Putin successful Alaska did not abruptly determine that Ukraine was expendable.

Europe’s top negotiated accomplishment was, successful effect, harm control.

The header committedness was Trump’s endorsement of information guarantees, coordinated pinch Europe. But guarantees without constituent are thing much than words. Who will enforce them? Which countries will nonstop troops? Who will unafraid Ukraine’s skies and seas?

None of these questions person answers, and they expose nan basal truth: without America, nan EU cannot deliver. Europe has neither nan weapons stockpiles, nor nan negotiated weight, nor nan governmental unity to deter Russia connected its own.

The continent is still reliant connected American intelligence, firepower, and leadership. The expected European reassurance unit is theatre unless nan US is involved. Trump knows this, which is why he tin dangle vague promises and group nan position of debate.

Equally telling was what went unspoken successful Washington. For weeks, reports swirled that Trump and Putin had discussed territorial “land swaps” on nan existent beforehand lines, efficaciously freezing Russia’s business of parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

Giving up territory

European capitals person many times vowed that Ukraine’s borders cannot beryllium changed by force. Yet successful nan White House, nary 1 dared situation Trump straight connected nan issue. Instead, he brushed it speech pinch a statement that sounded opinionated but was successful truth evasive: land, he said, was “a matter for Ukraine.”

That deflection keeps nan doorway wide unfastened for Moscow’s demands to creep backmost in, while Europe looks connected helplessly.

This is nan deeper humiliation. Europe insists connected “strategic autonomy” but still behaves for illustration a information protectorate of nan United States. Macron whitethorn thunder astir not showing weakness to Russia, but nan weakness connected show is Europe’s dependence connected American will.

The EU cannot dictate position to Washington, fto unsocial to Moscow. The leaders who crossed nan Atlantic were location not to style outcomes, but to sweet-talk Trump and support him engaged, lest he pivot afloat toward Putin. They praised him, smiled for cameras, and avoided friction. Their unity was nan unity of petitioners, not partners.

The dependence is structural. Since 2022, Europe has so stepped up assistance to Ukraine, but successful standard and impact, it remains secondary to US support. Even Germany’s much-heralded Zeitenwende defence displacement has produced small of contiguous deterrent value. NATO without America is simply a shell, and everyone knows it.

That reality gives Trump immense leverage. He tin frighten tariffs, mock NATO allies, flirt pinch Russia, and still extract their obedience, because they cannot protect themselves without him. Europe’s information rests not connected strategy aliases institutions, but connected nan impulses of 1 man successful nan Oval Office.

This is why nan Washington gathering was little a breakthrough than a theatre of dependence. Europeans hailed Trump’s promises arsenic progress, but they were applauding their ain subordination.

When nan destiny of Ukraine, and by hold nan information bid of Europe, hinges connected whether Trump feels for illustration honouring his word, nan transatlantic confederation is exposed for what it is: an asymmetric narration successful which Europe’s leaders tin only beg.

The calamity is that Europe knows this. It knows that “strategic autonomy” remains a slogan, not a reality. It continues to gather, obediently, successful Washington, hoping that Trump will not wantonness them, that Putin will beryllium restrained, that American guarantees, nary matter really vague, will suffice.

This is not strategy. It is dependency dressed up arsenic diplomacy.

Ashok Swain is simply a professor of bid and conflict investigation astatine Uppsala University, Sweden.