Expert: drone incidents will continue in Poland as long as there is a war across our border

The detonation of an unmanned aerial conveyance successful a mini colony successful nan Lublin region connected Tuesday nighttime is yet different successful a bid of incidents that person go portion of nan warfare connected Ukraine since Russia's all-out penetration successful 2022. The problem affects not only Poland, but nan full eastbound flank of NATO and respective different countries successful Eastern Europe.

In February 2024 and February 2025, a full of 3 Russian Shahed drones exploded connected Moldovan territory; successful September 2024, Russian drones violated nan airspace of Latvia and Romania. As past Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis commented connected Platform X: "Incidents unthinkable 3 years agone are now treated arsenic routine. Nothing should onshore successful Ukraine, Latvia aliases anyplace connected NATO territory, but this is simply a caller reality made imaginable by our inaction. Lithuania will of people support a beardown allied response."

In an question and reply pinch Euronews, Andrzej Kiński, a subject expert, attempts to measure nan level of threat to civilians.

"Considering that this conflict has been going connected for much than 3 years, location person been respective specified incidents successful Poland (at slightest nan ones we cognize about), and location person been 2 casualties. Considering really galore group dice successful postulation accidents aliases different unfortunate incidents, however, this is marginal. Of course, they should not beryllium underestimated - each quality life is priceless - but nevertheless nan standard of nan existent threat is truthful acold not large."

Kiński is besides successful nary uncertainty that 1 should get utilized to nan thought that weapons, utilized by nan warring parties to costs war, could look complete Polish territory.

"If nan conflict continues, nan consequence of further incidents of this benignant is significant. We do not afloat cognize nan quality of nan incident successful Osiny. Was it a provocation? Was it a method fault? If these are deliberate, they could escalate. If they are accidental events, this is wherever nan calculus of probability decides."

'Russian provocation'?

The time aft nan detonation successful Osiny, during a briefing pinch journalists, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz described nan detonation successful Osiny arsenic a "provocation of nan Russian Federation". But Andrzej Kiński is not truthful sure:

"On nan ground of nan chat disposable to nan nationalist of this worldly grounds that was recovered astatine nan scene, I cannot unequivocally authorities that this was a provocation - Russian, Belarusian, Ukrainian, tinkerers, aliens, etc. - and that it was a provocation of nan Russian Federation. I cannot opportunity without a definite magnitude of uncertainty that it was immoderate benignant of provocation".

The master added: "Certain findings astatine nan tract of nan downed drone make maine cautious astir this [the minister's] statement. It requires further study and we whitethorn ne'er cognize nan truth."

The latest findings of nan Regional Prosecutor's Office successful Lublin look to corroborate nan expert's caution. According to nan investigators, nan unmanned craft did not travel from either Russia aliases Ukraine. "Everything points to nan truth that it flew successful from Belarus", charismatic Grzegorz Trusiewicz said connected Thursday, referring to nan drone that fell successful Osiny. Asked what guidance nan drone was flying in, he explained that this was not nether investigation.

Why did Polish radars neglect to prime up nan drone?

The cardinal mobility is why Polish aerial defence systems grounded to observe nan incoming drone.

Major General Dariusz Malinowski, lawman commandant of nan Operational Command of nan Armed Forces said during a briefing connected Wednesday:

"Our appraisal is that this drone was designed to beryllium very difficult to detect. It astir apt flew very debased to debar our radar field".

Kiński confirms this assessment, but explains nan problem successful much detail:

"The radiolocation section successful peacetime extends complete our state from an altitude of 3 1000 metres upwards, i.e. beneath 3 1000 location is nary continuous radiolocation field. In a situation state, erstwhile different radiolocation stations, which are not needfully switched connected non-stop, travel into use, it is imaginable to get sum from a tallness of 500 metres."

In fact, nan problem is moreover much complex, arsenic nan master explains: "Our eastbound separator is much than 900 kilometres long. It is not imaginable to screen this full loop pinch radiolocation intends and beryllium capable to observe each targets flying astatine heights from 10 metres to 50 kilometres."

He besides points to different problems associated pinch a dense radar network: "These radars make beardown microwave radiation, which is harmful to humans arsenic good arsenic livestock pinch prolonged exposure. That is why these radar stations are placed successful peacetime specified surroundings truthful that they person an optimal section of study connected nan 1 hand, and truthful that their radiation is not harmful to bystanders connected nan other."

In May 2024, nan caput of nan Ministry of Defence approved a statement for nan transportation of nan 'BARBARA' radio-telemetry aerostat strategy successful 2027, worthy astir $960 million. The strategy is to dwell of 4 aerostats deployed on Poland's eastbound and north-eastern borders, pinch an entity discovery scope of much than 300 kilometres by each post.

However, Kiński is sceptical astir nan usefulness of nan system, stating that 'BARBARA' will not execute good successful a play of progressive conflict.

"It is simply a peacetime portion of equipment, albeit 1 that performs, acknowledgment to its expertise to 'look' heavy into force territory, an important domiciled successful informing of an attack. However, successful nan arena of a conflict, it tin beryllium destroyed successful its first minutes. It is, unfortunately, a susceptible plus because nan adversary knows its location. Aiming a ballistic rocket astatine nan crushed servants of nan state accompanying nan aerostat and neutralising it is not a awesome problem."

Will we find retired what happened successful Osina?

The master is not hopeful of a afloat mentation of nan circumstances of nan Osiny incident: "I don't deliberation we are going to find retired thing more. Consider astatine slightest these erstwhile incidents. No charismatic study has been published astir nan Przewodów incident of November 2022 aliases nan remains of nan rocket that was recovered adjacent Bydgoszcz astatine nan extremity of April 2023. We are reliant connected what nan politicians will show us, because successful truth nan subject will opportunity what their civilian superiors show them to say."

The business successful nan region remains tense and drone incidents are apt to proceed until nan conflict successful Ukraine is over.

As nan master states, nan citizens of galore European countries are alert of nan long of this war, accusation astir it appears each time successful nan apical 'ten' news. However, they do not consciousness nan threat arsenic overmuch arsenic nan countries straight connected nan beforehand line.

"Poland plays a cardinal domiciled - this must beryllium emphasised - successful supplying Ukraine pinch subject equipment, but not only. Also successful humanitarian aid, owed to nan truth that it borders Ukraine for a agelong stretch. The determination to found a carrier hub successful Rzeszów makes Poland 1 of nan countries that bears nan nonstop consequences of nan conflict".

The master besides recalls that location are ample Ukrainian cities wrong a short region from nan Polish border, which incorporate accommodation of subject value aliases captious infrastructure:

"They are nan target of Russian attacks, and truthful - whether incidentally and accidentally aliases consciously - location are besides violations of Polish territory by flying objects. Their quality successful this, alternatively than immoderate different place, is simply a nonstop consequence of nan ongoing conflict."

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte referred to nan drone detonation successful Osiny astatine a property convention pinch Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski connected Friday and stressed nan Alliance's solidarity pinch Poland. "We are moving very intimately pinch our colleagues from Poland. Without revealing details, but so they should respond successful immoderate measurement to this latest incident. That is why we are watching it intimately - please person nary uncertainty astir that," Rutte said.