International Nuclear Watchdog Issues Stark Warning in Wake of US Iran Strikes

The thought of attacking accommodation moving to create atomic powerfulness mightiness instantly bring to mind nan worst images of disasters for illustration Chernobyl and Fukushima. But experts opportunity that moreover if nan strikes deed important materials, bombing uranium enrichment sites is not apt to output a large-scale atomic catastrophe. Despite concerns astir wide radiation, nan IAEA maintains that it doesn’t “expect that location will beryllium immoderate wellness consequences for group aliases nan situation extracurricular nan targeted sites,” Grossi said successful a erstwhile update issued Sunday.

The biggest existent biology consequence from these sites, nan IAEA says, is local. Uranium enrichment accommodation incorporate toxic gases and chemicals, akin to what would beryllium stored astatine immoderate ample business chemic plant.

The worldly successful enrichment facilities, Wolfsthal says, “is not yet to nan constituent wherever it tin scope a concatenation guidance wherever it tin prolong a large-scale atomic explosion.” (The IAEA estimates that Iran has a stockpile of enriched uranium up to 60 percent—not yet high enough to make a atomic weapon, according to nan Bulletin of nan Atomic Scientists. The IAEA did study successful January that it had recovered a mini magnitude of substantially much enriched uranium astatine nan Fordow site.) Wolfsthal compares nan harm that strikes connected sites for illustration Natanz tin origin arsenic analogous to a car accident.

“There's gasoline successful your car,” he says. “You person a collision pinch your car aliases an accident, you mightiness person a fire, it mightiness moreover explode. There's immoderate toxic worldly that mightiness get released. But it's going to beryllium reasonably constricted damage.”

There’s a chance, he adds, that nan attacks connected Isfahan could person damaged casks holding uranium hexafluoride gas, a radioactive chemic compound, which could dispersed astir nan area. But harm from specified an detonation is apt to beryllium constricted successful scope.

"It's conscionable a big, dense state molecule, truthful it's not going to spell very far," Emily Caffrey, nan head for nan Health Physics Program astatine nan University of Alabama astatine Birmingham, told ABC News.

There is 1 installation successful Iran that could origin important harm if it is hit. Iran’s only commercialized atomic reactor is located adjacent nan metropolis of Bushehr; nan tract contains thousands of kilograms of atomic worldly undergoing concatenation reactions to nutrient fuel. (Research reactors, for illustration nan ones astatine Isfahan, usage overmuch little substance than commercialized reactors and run astatine overmuch little temperatures, making them little vulnerable successful nan arena of an accident.) In comments delivered a time earlier nan US strikes, Grossi said that a onslaught connected nan works “could consequence successful a very precocious merchandise of radioactivity to nan environment.” The Israeli authorities said past week that its ain strikes had deed Bushehr, but Israeli officials later walked backmost these claims.

“In my method assessment, attacking a atomic reactor is really, really, really, really dumb,” Wolfsthal says.

There is besides a larger, much semipermanent biology threat astatine hand: nan chance that Iran takes last steps pursuing these attacks to really build a atomic weapon.

“It is not mislaid connected anybody that Israel and nan United States some person atomic weapons and person attacked Iran, that does not,” Wolfsthal says. “Russia has atomic weapons and Ukraine does not. North Korea, which has atomic weapons, is sitting pretty. The connection present is atomic weapons bring you information and immunity and empower you to return action against your adversaries. That's a very vulnerable connection that we're sending to countries that were connected nan cusp of atomic options and mightiness determine now to prosecute them.”

Grossi’s remarks connected Monday echoed this concern.

“One point is certain, and this is nan elemental truth: We will not beryllium safer if location are much atomic weapons successful much states astir nan world,” he said.