Tackling Russia's hybrid war on Europe: Jamming and spoofing in the 'grey zone'

Russia has been accused of jamming nan GPS strategy aboard nan level carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Bulgaria connected Sunday. The incident forced nan level to onshore astatine nan metropolis of Plovdiv utilizing accepted insubstantial maps, alternatively than nan modular physics system.

"We tin corroborate location was GPS jamming, but nan level landed safely successful Bulgaria. We person received accusation from Bulgarian authorities that they fishy that this was owed to blatant interference by Russia," a Commission spokesperson said connected Monday aft nan incident.

Three days later Bulgarian officials denied these claims, saying location is "no evidence" of "prolonged interference aliases jamming" of nan GPS awesome connected von der Leyen's plane.

Bulgaria's Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov said connected Tuesday that nan state will not analyse nan jamming incident connected von der Leyen's level because "such things hap each day." 

But connected Thursday his carrier Minister Grozdan Karadjov denied that nan authorities had submitted immoderate accusation connected nan matter to nan European Commission, contradicting nan Commission's assertion that Bulgarian authorities suspected nan disruption was nan consequence of nan Kremlin's hybrid warfare.

John Hardie, nan lawman head of nan Russia Programme astatine nan Foundation for Defence of Democracies told Euronews while it is unclear whether it was a cyber onslaught aliases a much accepted physics warfare attack, "certainly nan Russians person capabilities successful some those domains that could person perchance been involved."

"Based connected nan scope of this peculiarly airdrome from Crimea aliases different Russian physics warfare assets it is simply a small unclear to maine precisely really nan Russians would person done this, but surely thing for illustration this is correct up their alley and would beryllium accordant pinch different akin actions nan Russians person taken against European governments and European companies," he added.

GPS interference has risen dramatically since 2022

In a missive successful May, European ministers reported that GPS jamming and spoofing had been observed since 2022 successful nan Baltic Sea region, chiefly from Russia and Belarus, and that GPS interference from craft had accrued dramatically since August 2024.

Lithuania recorded much than 1,000 cases of GPS interference in June, 22 times higher than successful June 2024, according to nan country's communications regulator. In Estonia, 85% of flights were affected by GPS interference, according to authorities. Poland recorded 2,732 cases of GPS jamming and spoofing successful January 2025.

Euronews said to a aviator moving for 1 of Europe's commercialized airlines regarding his experience, who confirmed that planes flying adjacent to Ukraine, Israel and nan Middle East person knowledgeable much cases of their GPS systems being jammed.

The aviator described it arsenic "not thing you retrieve for nan remainder of my life. But it's besides not thing that happens each azygous time either."

He said nan large mobility is whether nan jamming is intentional aliases not, because "in nan history of aviation, location has not been malicious interference yet targeted to airliners" and astir pilots whose planes are affected by jamming person nary measurement to show if it was intentional aliases not.

Investigating imaginable Russian links

NATO said it is moving to antagonistic Russia's jamming of civilian flights pinch nan alliance's Secretary General Mark Rutte saying nan full continent was nether "direct threat from nan Russians."

"We are each connected nan eastbound flank now, whether you unrecorded successful London aliases Tallinn," he said.

John Hardie from nan Foundation for Defence of Democracies told Euronews nan threat mightiness moreover beryllium coming from wrong nan EU territory.

"If nan Russians were so involved, different anticipation is immoderate benignant of section character connected nan crushed pinch an physics warfare capacity of immoderate sort. That would beryllium successful keeping pinch nan modus operandi we've seen nan Russians usage elsewhere successful Europe, benignant of recruiting locals, often done Telegram, nan Russian societal media app, to transportation retired benignant of subversive activities connected behalf of Russian intelligence services," he explained.

Hardie pointed retired that this anticipation would beryllium accordant pinch a "grey zone" aliases "Russian progressive measures run which nan Russians had been waging for respective years now against European countries."

What would beryllium important successful this case, Hardie says, is not conscionable jamming immoderate aircraft, but "timing nan cognition to impact nan airliner carrying Von der Leyen."

"That would beryllium important and benignant of notable, particularly if nan Russians were operating done immoderate benignant of section proxy to beryllium capable to clip up that cognition truthful it has nan effect connected nan intended target - would beryllium significant."

"Active measures"

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says that nan number of Russian sabotage operations successful Europe almost quadrupled from 2023 to 2024.

IISS' database of suspected and confirmed Russian sabotage operations targeting Europe, reveals specified attacks person been aimed astatine Europe's captious infrastructure and, contempt European information and intelligence officials raising nan alarm, person mostly been unaffected by NATO, EU and personnel authorities responses to date.

"Since 2022 and nan expulsion of hundreds of its intelligence officers from European capitals, Russia has been highly effective successful its online recruitment of third-country nationals to circumvent European counter-intelligence measures," nan IISS said.

The IISS says immoderate NATO personnel states person assessed Russia's unconventional warfare to beryllium portion of its semipermanent preparations for a imaginable subject confrontation pinch NATO.

John Hardie told Euronews that complete nan people of nan full-scale penetration of Ukraine "Vladimir Putin has shown that connected nan 1 manus he is very reluctant to behaviour a nonstop subject aggression against a NATO member."

"He wants nary portion of a warfare pinch nan United States, and for bully reason, because he would very apt suffer that, astatine slightest connected nan accepted side. But, astatine nan aforesaid time, nan Russians person very fierce benignant of operating beneath that period of overt subject unit conducting immoderate of nan subversive actions," he said.

Hardie says not only he doesn’t expect this to abate, connected nan contrary Moscow mightiness beryllium preparing much of these "active measures."

"The Russians could ramp that up arsenic benignant of a antagonistic to these discussions of European-led information guarantees for Ukraine, which of people nan Kremlin fiercely opposes precisely because they would benignant of thief impede Russia's efforts to predominate Ukraine."

Mark Rutte warned each confederation members are successful threat arsenic nan "the threat from nan Russians is expanding each day."

"With nan latest Russian rocket exertion for example, nan quality now betwixt Lithuania connected nan beforehand statement and Luxembourg, The Hague aliases Madrid is 5 to 10 minutes. That's nan clip it takes this rocket to scope these parts of Europe," he cautioned.

How tin Europe protect itself?

"I tin guarantee you that we are moving time and nighttime to antagonistic this, to forestall it, and to make judge that they will not do it again," Rutte said.

"We person agreed connected policies location to really beryllium much effective successful this area. I ever hated nan connection hybrid because it sounds truthful cuddly, but hybrid is precisely this: jamming commercialized airplanes pinch perchance disastrous effects, an assassination effort connected a large industrialist successful 1 of NATO Allied countries, attacking nan National Health Service successful nan United Kingdom," he added.

The EU commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius said nan European Union plans to deploy further satellites successful debased Earth orbit successful bid to boost its defences against GPS interference and amended its capabilities to observe it.

Until past pilots are trained to woody pinch these scenarios and are acquainted pinch replacement navigation methods and moreover a deliberate GPS jamming doesn't bespeak that "they were not trying to bring nan level down" nan commercialized hose pilot, who wished to stay anonymous, told Euronews.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies stated that nary confirmed civilian deaths person been straight linked to Russian sabotage operations successful Europe since nan 2022 penetration of Ukraine.

"The absence of wide casualties does not connote an absence of intent aliases capability. Rather, it reflects a strategy designed to intimidate, disrupt and probe nan resoluteness of European governments successful a mode cautiously calibrated to debar crossing nan period that would trigger a forceful retaliatory response," nan group said.