Ukraine's Independence Day a bittersweet holiday for Ukrainian refugees

24 August marks Ukraine's Independence Day. A vacation that has precocious had a bittersweet sensation for Ukrainians domiciled successful Poland and different countries.

Natalia Panchenko, leader of Euromaidan Warsaw and co-organiser of Ukraine's Independence Day celebrations successful Warsaw, tells Euronews:

"We are nan procreation that is dying for Ukraine to proceed to beryllium independent. That is why this time is particularly important for us. This time is important for those who are fighting successful nan trench, because it reminds them what they are fighting for - for Ukraine to beryllium independent. This time is important for nan mothers who mislaid their children successful this warfare and for nan families of those successful Russian captivity. This is simply a time we utilized to observe successful Ukraine pinch large festivals, concerts, celebrations successful cardinal squares, successful each cities. But for nan past 12 years we tin nary longer rejoice, because for nan past 12 years we person been forced to conflict pinch Russia each time for this independence."

Flows of Ukrainian refugees successful Europe

UN figures show that location were 5.6 cardinal citizens surviving extracurricular Ukraine connected 1 July 2025. At nan aforesaid time, according to nan International Organisation for Migration, 4.14 cardinal Ukrainians who near astatine nan opening of nan warfare had already returned to their homeland by 1 April this year.

The National Bank of Ukraine, connected nan different hand, forecast successful a caller study that nan gait of Ukrainians' return to Ukraine is slowing down. Instead of nan expected 500,000 Ukrainians who were expected to return to nan state by 2027, it now predicts only 100,000. At nan aforesaid time, nan NBU forecasts a caller activity of emigration - up to 400,000 group successful 2026-2027.

According to Natalia Panchenko, location are presently astir 2.5-3 cardinal Ukrainian citizens successful Poland, of which astir 1 cardinal are warfare refugees since nan full-scale penetration of February 2022. As nan Ukrainian activistic points out, nan Independence Day celebrations are besides an opportunity for nan Ukrainian organization to convey each those successful Poland and Europe who support them:

"Poland differs from different countries successful that erstwhile nan warfare started, it was not only nan state, nan institutions and nan strategy that acted. Above all, it was mean group who joined in, who drove to nan separator to prime up refugees, who opened their ain homes to return them in, who supported women from Ukraine and helped enrol children successful schools and kindergartens. Polish nine successful wide is thing of a arena to me. Even now, erstwhile immoderate group are already tired of helping Ukraine aliases simply that nan warfare has lasted truthful long, contempt nan truth that economical conditions person worsened successful Poland, truthful you person to return attraction of yourself - location is still a immense number of Polish organisations and mean group who cod humanitarian aid, spell to nan front, and support refugees."

At nan aforesaid time, nan activistic does not hide nan truth that during nan past predetermination run successful Poland, location was much dislike reside including anti-immigrant and anti-Ukrainian slogans. She admits that precocious she has been proceeding much often from Ukrainians successful Poland that they consciousness little safe and are considering leaving. But it is not ever a return to Ukraine, but often further emigration to nan West.

A scorched world awaits galore Ukrainians returning home

In nan outpouring of 2025, nan Gremi Personal Analytical Centre conducted a study among Ukrainian citizens temporarily domiciled successful Poland. The results showed that 70% of respondents are perchance considering returning to nan country. Of these, 17.9% said they would return instantly arsenic soon arsenic it was safe to do so, while 45.3% were hesitant but would not norm retired a return.

"In position of forecasts, further migration dynamics will dangle chiefly connected developments successful Ukraine: scenarios for nan extremity of nan war, economical recovery, nan standard of finance and different factors. Although nan demographic business successful Ukraine is so a origin for concern, nan imaginable for return remains significant, particularly successful nan agelong term", Oleg Rudenko of nan Gremi Personal Analytical Centre believes.

According to Nataliya Panchenko, it is definite that immoderate Ukrainians staying successful Poland and Europe will not return to their state moreover aft nan warfare is over.

"It is chiefly those group successful Ukraine who already physically person obscurity to return to. It is very often nan lawsuit that group not only do not person their home, but they nary longer moreover person nan municipality they came from. If you return towns for illustration Avdiyivka aliases Bakhmut, aliases galore others, and look astatine a representation today, location is conscionable a black, scorched earth."

On nan different hand, immoderate of nan refugees are already returning now, without waiting for a ceasefire aliases bid talks, truthful that from September children tin commencement nan caller schoolhouse twelvemonth already successful Ukraine.

"About 40 per cent of nan refugees who are presently overseas are readying to return to Ukraine. Regardless of nan truth that immoderate of them are already good anchored person friends, they bespeak that they do not person a consciousness of location present and that they will want to return to Ukraine astatine nan first opportunity", Panchenko concludes.