Ursula von der Leyen's return as China hawk shuts down talk of diplomatic reset

Summer has arrived successful Brussels pinch a caller trend: nan doves are out, nan hawks are in.

After weeks of telegraphing signs towards a negotiated rapprochement pinch China, aliases astatine slightest a thaw, Ursula von der Leyen made an abrupt volte look astatine nan G7 acme with a broadside attack against Beijing's "pattern of dominance, dependency and blackmail" vis-à-vis its trading partners, including nan European Union and nan United States.

"China has mostly shown its unwillingness to unrecorded wrong nan constraints of nan rules-based world system," von der Leyen said successful her intervention.

"While others opened their market, China focused connected undercutting intelligence spot protections, monolithic subsidies pinch nan purpose to predominate world manufacturing and proviso chains," she went on. "This is not marketplace title – it is distortion pinch intent."

The president of nan European Commission declared, constituent blank, that nan root of "the biggest corporate problem" successful nan world trading strategy laic successful China's accession to nan World Trade Organization (WTO) successful 2001.

Beijing's introduction into nan WTO has been highly arguable arsenic it opened world markets to a activity of low-cost exports. The admittance is linked to nan alleged "China shock" and a diminution successful manufacturing jobs successful some nan EU and nan US.

At nan G7 summit, von der Leyen warned a "new China shock" was underway.

It was a gloves-off denunciation that laid bare nan authorities of mind of nan Commission chief, her mounting displeasure and exasperation. In galore ways, it was a return to nan hawkish stance of her first mandate, during which she famously promoted nan conception of "de-risking" to slash susceptible limitations that China could exploit.

Beijing was speedy to deed back astatine von der Leyen's invective. Guo Jiakun, nan spokesperson of nan Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry, called her remarks "baseless" and "biased".

Guo, however, did not miss nan chance to connection a caller oliva branch.

"China stands fresh to summation connection and coordination pinch nan EU, decently grip waste and acquisition differences, and execute win-win and shared prosperity," he said.

"That said, we firmly reason immoderate effort to wounded China's correct to improvement aliases moreover asseverate one’s ain interests astatine China's expense."

The reset that ne'er was

The conciliatory effort fits successful pinch Beijing's "charm offensive", arsenic diplomats telephone it, towards nan bloc successful consequence to nan disruptive policies of US President Donald Trump, who has imposed punitive tariffs connected friends and adversaries alike.

Sensing an impending rupture successful nan Western alliance, China has made respective overtures to curry favour pinch Brussels, including lifting controversial sanctions on lawmakers, up of a much-anticipated EU-China acme successful precocious July.

Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed the 50th anniversary of bilateral relations arsenic an opportunity to "open up a brighter future" successful diplomacy.

Von der Leyen replied: "We stay committed to deepening our business pinch China. A balanced relationship, built connected fairness and reciprocity, is successful our communal interest."

But successful her G7 intervention, delivered pinch Trump successful nan room, this committedness was conspicuous by its absence. Instead, she fto nan hawk alert free and wild.

At nan halfway of her reside was Beijing's caller determination to restrict nan income of 7 uncommon world materials, which she said amounted to "weaponising" trade.

China holds a quasi-monopolistic position complete uncommon earths, nan 17 metallic elements that are basal for building cutting-edge technologies. The state commands astir 60% of nan world's proviso and 90% of nan processing and refining capacity.

Although nan restrictions have eased successful caller days, von der Leyen cautioned "the threat remains" and called connected nan G7 to adjacent ranks to heap other unit connected China.

Rare earths are conscionable nan extremity of an iceberg made up of commercialized disputes that person driven a stark wedge betwixt Brussels and Beijing. The past fewer years person seen nan bloc enforce steep duties connected China-made electric vehicles, exclude Chinese companies from nationalist tenders of medical devices, explanation Huawei and ZTE arsenic "high-risk suppliers" of 5G networks, and motorboat investigations into suspicious uses of business subsidies.

Brussels has besides accused Beijing of engaging successful large-scale campaigns of overseas accusation manipulations and interference (known arsenic FIMI), hacking into authorities agencies, fuelling subject tensions successful nan Taiwan Strait, violating nan quality authorities of nan Uyghur organization and acting arsenic nan "key enabler" of Russia's penetration of Ukraine.

Despite large pleas from Europeans, Xi Jinping has doubled down connected his "no-limits" business pinch Vladimir Putin, causing dismay and outrage crossed nan continent.

By offering nary important concessions and sticking to its long-standing practices, China has missed nan opportunity offered by von der Leyen aft Trump's inauguration, says Noah Barkin, a visiting elder chap astatine nan German Marshall Fund.

"Von der Leyen's unvarnished criticisms of China astatine nan G7 acme are a consequence to Beijing's intransigence. Unless China shows a willingness to reside Europe's concerns, nan acme successful July is improbable to nutrient immoderate deliverables of substance," Barkin said.

"The likelihood is that tensions betwixt nan EU and China will proceed to grow. The closing of nan US marketplace to Chinese products will lead to a diversion of exports into Europe, expanding nan threat to European industry. And nan withdrawal of US support for Ukraine will move China's support for Russia into an moreover bigger problem for Europe."

Keeping it real

Although von der Leyen has earned plaudits for her clear-eyed, matter-of-fact appraisal of EU-China relations, her views person not go universally accepted by personnel states, nan existent guardians of governmental power.

In April, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez flew to Beijing, held a bilateral gathering pinch President Xi and made a plea to move nan page connected nan confrontational approach.

"Spain is successful favour of much balanced relations betwixt nan European Union and China, of uncovering negotiated solutions to our differences, which we have, and of greater practice successful areas of communal interest," Sánchez said.

The Spaniard's words instantly caught nan attraction of Brussels and sent speculation of a negotiated reset into overdrive. But Alicja Bachulska, a argumentation chap astatine nan European Council connected Foreign Relations (ECFR), says nan buzzy sermon was ne'er credible.

"Hopes of a imaginable reset, if any, were mostly projected by those who do not spot eye-to-eye pinch von der Leyen's Commission," Bachulska told Euronews.

"This Commission seems rather accordant successful explaining its attack towards China and really it sees nan threats, nan challenges, and nan very constricted opportunities for practice pinch China nether existent conditions."

Politics, of course, travel pinch economics attached.

For galore countries, peculiarly those export-oriented, China remains an extraordinarily valuable marketplace of 1.4 cardinal people, contempt nan aggregate obstacles and hurdles that European companies look when doing business. With Trump threatening a whopping 50% tariff connected nan bloc if waste and acquisition talks fail, having a cushion to autumn onto is considered indispensable to debar – aliases astatine slightest mitigate – nan imaginable ravaging impact.

Trade will beryllium astatine nan very apical of nan schedule astatine nan EU-China summit, pinch some sides looking guardant to having thing to announce. Brussels is keen to put an extremity to China's probes into brandy, pork and dairy products, which it considers unjustified.

But arsenic nan day nears, hopes for a waste and acquisition breakthrough that tin make a tangible quality connected nan crushed and relieve immoderate of nan tensions are fading, arsenic von der Leyen's hardened reside astatine nan G7 demonstrated.

"It's astir being realistic: we still spot China arsenic a partner, competitor and rival," a elder diplomat said, speaking connected information of anonymity. "We person to beryllium possibly much assured astir our interests, what we tin do to prosecute them better, but besides enactment erstwhile actions are taken that frighten nan stableness of our continent."

A diplomat from different state kept a cool caput to little expectations up of nan summit, arguing China's confederation pinch Russia and campaigns of overseas interference stay "serious" and "disturbing" factors pinch nary motion of improvement.

"If you want to really deepen ties pinch us, that's intolerable if, astatine nan aforesaid time, you behave for illustration this," nan diplomat said.

"The EU needs to guidelines up for its ain interests, nary matter who's successful nan White House."