Why September tends to spook European equity markets

September has agelong carried an unfavourable estimation for world equity markets, and European stocks are nary exception.

Historical information reveals that nan period consistently delivers anemic performances for awesome continental indices, echoing nan antagonistic seasonal shape seen connected Wall Street.

Over nan past 30 years, nan Euro Stoxx 50 index, Europe’s starring blue-chip benchmark, has posted an mean September nonaccomplishment of 1.56%, narrowly trailing August’s 1.59% decline, which ranks arsenic nan worst period of nan year. In 15 of those 30 years, nan scale closed nan period successful nan red, underscoring a near-coin flip probability of a antagonistic outcome.

The antagonistic seasonality remains intact moreover erstwhile narrowing nan lens to nan past decade. Since 2014, nan Euro Stoxx 50 has recorded an mean 1% driblet successful September, pinch six retired of 10 instances ending successful losses.

And it’s not conscionable nan Euro Stoxx 50 emotion nan September slump. The broader Euro Stoxx 600, which captures a wider portion of nan market, has besides stumbled during this month, pinch an mean nonaccomplishment of 0.96% since its motorboat successful 2002.

That mirrors nan S&P 500’s performance, which has mislaid astir 1% connected mean during nan aforesaid period complete caller decades, nan worst return of immoderate period for US equities.

The September seasonal weakness successful equity markets whitethorn beryllium linked to a confluence of factors: post-summer rebalancing by organization investors, renewed macroeconomic uncertainty heading into nan year-end, and traditionally little trading volumes pursuing nan vacation period.

National indices not spared

Across Europe’s awesome state indices, nan September effect is arsenic pronounced.

Germany’s DAX scale has delivered an mean return of -1.62% successful September, 2nd only to August successful position of weakness, pinch a winning complaint of conscionable 47%.

France’s CAC 40 fares similarly, averaging a 1.49% diminution successful September, its poorest period of nan year, though it manages a somewhat amended 53% winning rate.

Italy’s FTSE MIB index, while averaging a level 0% return successful September complete nan agelong term, is presently connected a streak of 4 consecutive antagonistic Septembers.

10 European stocks suffer steepest September setbacks

At nan individual banal level, respective of Europe’s heavyweight names person demonstrated a persistent shape of September underperformance, pinch mean losses outpacing their monthly norms and, successful galore cases, marking September arsenic nan worst-performing period of nan year.

Infineon (Germany): The semiconductor group has an mean September nonaccomplishment of 6.13%, its weakest period historically. The banal has closed little successful 4 consecutive Septembers, pinch its worst driblet of 52.34% occurring successful 2001.

Vivendi (France): With a dismal 33% winning complaint successful September and an mean nonaccomplishment of 4.07%, nan French media patient knowledgeable a grounds monthly driblet of 66% successful 2021.

Airbus (Netherlands/France): The aerospace elephantine has fallen successful six consecutive Septembers, averaging a 4.01% decline. Its worst September came successful 2001, pinch shares plunging 37.04%.

LVMH (France): Europe’s largest luxury group averages a 3.42% September drop, contempt a marginally amended 53% triumph rate. The worst September nonaccomplishment came successful 2001, astatine -34.71%.

Société Générale (France): The French slope posts an mean September return of -3.11%, pinch a 47% triumph rate. Its astir terrible driblet was -40.38% successful 1998.

Schneider Electric (France): The electrical instrumentality patient has an mean September return of -2.16%, pinch its steepest autumn of 34.43% occurring successful 2001.

E.ON (Germany): The inferior institution averages a 2.18% September nonaccomplishment pinch a 43% winning rate. Its worst driblet came successful 2015, astatine -24.03%.

Deutsche Post AG (Germany): The logistics and courier group averages a 1.97% nonaccomplishment successful September. It saw its sharpest monthly diminution of -22.41% successful 2002.

Kering (France): Another luxury player, Kering averages a 1.76% driblet successful September pinch a 43% triumph rate. The worst September came successful 2002 (-23.35%), and nan banal is presently connected a four-year losing streak.

SAP (Germany): Europe’s largest package institution averages a 1.6% September decline. A six-year streak of antagonistic Septembers ended successful 2024, though nan banal erstwhile dropped 40.98% successful nan period backmost successful 2002.