Worst drought in decades threatens Syria's fragile recovery from years of civil war

The worst drought successful decades is gripping overmuch of nan Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, drying retired rivers and lakes, shrivelling crops and starring to dayslong pat h2o cutoffs successful awesome cities.

The business is peculiarly dire successful Syria, wherever experts opportunity rainfall has been declining for decades and wherever nan fledgling authorities is trying to stitch nan state backmost together pursuing a 14-year civilian warfare that near millions impoverished and reliant connected overseas aid.

Small-farmer Mansour Mahmoud al-Khatib said that during nan war, he couldn't scope his fields successful nan Damascus suburb of Sayyida Zeinab immoderate days because militants from nan Lebanese Hezbollah militia allied pinch then-President Bashar Assad would artifact nan roads. That problem vanished erstwhile Hezbollah withdrew aft Assad fell successful a December rebel offensive, but nan drought has devastated his farm, drying up nan wells that irrigate it.

“The onshore is missing nan water,” al-Khatib told The Associated Press precocious arsenic he watched workers provender nan wheat he did negociate to harvest into a threshing machine. “This play is weak; you could telephone it half a season. Some years are amended and immoderate years are worse, but this twelvemonth is harsh.”

In a bully year, his onshore could nutrient arsenic overmuch arsenic 800 to 900 kilograms of wheat per dunam, an area adjacent to 0.1 hectares. This year, it yielded astir a 4th that much, he said. He hired only six aliases 7 workers this harvest play alternatively of past year’s 15.

Syria's withering crops

Because nan drought followed a prolonged war, farmers who were already financially stretched person had small expertise to header pinch its effects, said Jalal Al Hamoud, nationalist nutrient information serviceman for nan UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation successful Syria.

Before nan uprising-turned-civil warfare that began successful 2011, Syrian farmers produced an mean of 3.5 cardinal to 4.5 cardinal tonnes of wheat per year, which was capable to meet nan country’s home needs, according to Saeed Ibrahim, head of cultivation readying and economics successful Syria’s Agriculture Ministry.

That yearly output dropped to 2.2 cardinal to 2.6 cardinal tonnes during nan war, and successful caller years, nan authorities has had to import 60 to 70 per cent of its wheat to provender its astir 23 cardinal people. This year's harvest is expected to output only 1 cardinal tonnes, forcing nan state to walk moreover much of its strained resources connected imports.

Mudar Dayoub, a spokesperson for Syria's Ministry of Internal Trade and Consumer Protection, said this year’s wheat harvest will only past for 2 aliases 3 months and that nan authorities is "currently relying connected signing contracts to import wheat from abroad” and connected donations, including from neighbouring Iraq.

But successful a state wherever nan World Food Program estimates that half nan organization is food-insecure, Ibrahim warned that “total reliance connected imports and assistance threatens nutrient security” and is “unsustainable.”

The drought isn't nan only awesome rumor facing Syria, wherever postwar reconstruction is projected to costs hundreds of billions of dollars. Since Assad fled, nan state has been rattled by outbreaks of sectarian violence, and there's increasing uncertainty astir whether nan caller authorities will beryllium capable to clasp it together. Without jobs aliases stability, millions of refugees who fled during nan warfare are improbable to travel home.

Interconnected crises

A reservoir connected nan Litani River successful neighbouring Lebanon's fertile Bekaa Valley forms Lake Qaraoun, a reservoir that spans astir 12 quadrate kilometres.

Over nan years, ambiance alteration has led to a gradual diminution successful nan h2o flowing into nan reservoir, said Sami Alawieh, caput of nan Litani River National Authority.

This summer, aft an unusually barren wintertime near Lebanon without nan h2o reserves it usually banks done snowfall and rainfall, it has shrunk to nan size of a pond, surrounded by a immense expanse of parched land.

Although an mean of 350 cardinal cubic metres of h2o flows into nan reservoir during nan rainy play each year, gathering astir one-third of Lebanon's yearly demand, this twelvemonth nan incoming h2o didn't transcend 45 cardinal cubic metres, he said.

Lebanon’s h2o woes person further exacerbated nan drought successful Syria, which partially relies connected rivers flowing successful from its occidental neighbour.

The largest of those is nan Orontes, besides known arsenic nan Assi. In Syria’s Idlib province, nan stream is an important root of irrigation water, and fishermen make their surviving from its banks. This year, dormant food littered nan dried-out stream bed.

“This is nan first clip it’s happened that location was nary h2o astatine all,” said Dureid Haj Salah, a husbandman successful Idlib’s Jisour al-Shugour. Many farmers can't spend to excavation wells for irrigation, and nan drought destroyed not only summertime rootlike crops but decades-old trees successful orchards, he said.

“There is nary compensation for nan nonaccomplishment of crops," Haj Salah said. "And you cognize nan farmers make conscionable capable to get by."

Mostafa Summaq, head of h2o resources successful Idlib province, said nan groundwater dropped by much than 10 metres successful 3 months successful immoderate monitoring wells, which he attributed to farmers overpumping owed to a deficiency of rain.

Local officials are considering installing metered irrigation systems, but it would beryllium excessively costly to do without assistance, he said.

Climate shocks bring a drier climate

Most experts work together that Syria and nan broader region look headed toward worse ambiance shocks, which they aren't prepared to absorb.

Climate alteration makes immoderate regions wetter and others drier, and nan Middle East and Mediterranean are among those that are drying out, said Matti Kummu, a professor astatine Aalto University successful Finland who specializes successful world nutrient and h2o issues. Syria, specifically, has shown a inclination of reduced rainfall complete nan past 40 years, while it has been utilizing h2o astatine an unsustainable rate.

“There’s not capable h2o from rainfall aliases from snowmelt successful nan mountains to recharge nan groundwater,” Kummu said. Due to expanding irrigation needs, he said, "the groundwater array is going little and lower, which intends that it’s little accessible and requires much power (to pump)." At immoderate point, nan groundwater mightiness tally out.

Even pinch constricted means, nan state could return measures to mitigate nan impacts, specified arsenic accrued rainwater harvesting, switching to much drought-tolerant crops and trying to put much effective irrigation systems successful place, moreover elemental ones.

But “in nan agelong term, if nan business successful position of nan ambiance alteration impacts continues" arsenic presently projected, really overmuch of nan croplands will beryllium arable successful nan coming decades is an unfastened question, Kummu said.